4. Statement of Five-Year Housing Land Supply
4.1. The NPPF (paragraph 74) requires authorities to identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide a minimum of five-years' worth of housing against their housing requirement set out in adopted strategic policies.
NPPF Annex 2 (Glossary), Definition of Deliverable: To be considered deliverable, sites for housing should be available now, offer a suitable location for development now, and be achievable with a realistic prospect that housing will be delivered on the site within five years. In particular: a) sites which do not involve major development and have planning permission, and all sites with detailed planning permission, should be considered deliverable until permission expires, unless there is clear evidence that homes will not be delivered within five years (for example because they are no longer viable, there is no longer a demand for the type of units or sites have long term phasing plans). b) where a site has outline planning permission for major development, has been allocated in a development plan, has a grant of permission in principle, or is identified on a brownfield register, it should only be considered deliverable where there is clear evidence that housing completions will begin on site within five years.
4.2. The Local Plan 2016-2036 Part 1: Planning Strategy was formally adopted on 6 July 2020 and therefore is used to calculate the Council's five-year housing land supply. This Statement covers the period 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2026. This Statement sets out that the Council cannot currently demonstrate a five-year housing land supply having a supply of 3.07 years.
4.3. The Council has been proactive in terms of increasing future housing land supply in the Plan Area. The most recently adopted (July 2020) Local Plan 2016-2036 Part 1: Planning Strategy makes provision for at least 10,420 dwellings over the Plan period 2016-2036. This is more than a 2.5-fold increase on the previous Core Strategy housing target of 3,920 dwellings over the period 2006-2026.
4.4. To fulfil the significant uplift in the housing target and achieve the necessary boost in housing supply and delivery, the Local Plan 2016-2036 Part 1: Planning Strategy allocates 18 significant new sites for residential development for a combined total of at least 5,995 additional dwellings. These are all new allocations, none of which had planning permission with the exception of a small element of Strategic Site 1: Land to the north of Totton which had an outline planning
permission for up to 80 dwellings (15/11797). Delivering 18 new major housing development sites effectively from scratch is a very significant challenge and will logically need time, particularly in an area as environmentally and physically constrained as New Forest District and consequently sites are complex to deliver.
4.5. The Council is committed to working collaboratively with the site developers in order to bring sites forward successfully. A significant number of the strategic site allocations are now at planning application stage and the overwhelming majority are either at pre- application advice stage or planning application stage.
Housing Target
4.6. The Local Plan 2016-2036 Part 1: Planning Strategy seeks to deliver a new housing requirement of at least 10,420 (net) dwellings for the period 2016-2036. The housing requirement is to be achieved through a step change in housing delivery and, as set out in Policy STR5, will be phased as follows:
- 2016/17 to 2020/21 - 300 dwellings per annum
- 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 400 dwellings per annum
- 2026/27 to 2035/36 - 700 dwellings per annum
4.7. The following paragraphs and tables set out New Forest District's (outside the National Park) five-year housing land supply position for the period 2021/22-2025/26.
4.8. The annual housing target for the years 2021/22-2025/26 is as follows:
Table 11: Housing Target 2021/22 to 2025/26
Year | Housing Target |
|---|---|
2021/22 | 400 |
2022/23 | 400 |
2023/24 | 400 |
2024/25 | 400 |
2025/26 | 400 |
Target 2021/22-2025/26 | 2,000 |
Dwelling Completions 2016/17-2020/21
4.9. In the period 2016/17 to 2020/21 1,705 dwellings were completed. This is 205 dwellings above the housing requirement for that period and there is consequently no housing supply shortfall to take account of in the five-year housing land supply period 2021/22-2025/26. The NPPF and PPG are silent on the issue of whether or not any oversupply in past completions should be taken into account when calculating the five-year housing land requirement. However, recent appeal decisions nationally ((e.g. see APP/J0405/W/16/3158833 (Paragraphs 119-120); APP/F4410/W/16/3158500 (Paragraph 37); and APP/G1630/W/17/3184272 (Paragraphs 201-203)) firmly indicate that this should not be used to offset against/reduce the five-year housing land supply requirement. Therefore, in order to ensure the calculation of the requirement is robust no proportion of the supply surplus to date against the five-year delivery requirement to date will be used to offset the five-year housing land requirement for 2020/21-2024/25.
Table 12: Net Completions 2016/17 to 2020/21
Year | Completions |
|---|---|
2016/17 | 350 |
2017/18 | 266 |
2018/19 | 359 |
2019/20 | 308 |
2020/21 | 422 |
Total | 1,705 |
Buffer
4.10. The NPPF (Paragraph 74) requires a buffer of 5% to be applied to the five-year housing land requirement to allow for choice and competition in the market. The buffer should be increased to 20% where delivery of housing over the previous three years has fallen below 85% of the requirement, as set out in the last published Housing Delivery Test results.
4.11. The result of the 2021 Housing Delivery Test covering the period 2018/19-2020/21 was published by the Government in January 2022 and the results show that the Council achieved a 'Pass' score of 141% in the Housing Delivery Test 2021 Measurement.
4.12. There is therefore no evidence of under-delivery under the terms of the NPPF (Paragraph 74(c)) against the up-to-date Local Plan housing requirement over the previous three years and indeed housing delivery over the previous three years has exceeded the housing requirement for that period. On that basis therefore, the appropriate buffer to apply for the purposes of the five-year housing land supply assessment is the 5% buffer. Five-year housing land supply assessment for the period 2021/22 to 2025/26
4.13. This assessment set out in Table 13 below shows that the Council cannot demonstrate a five-year housing land supply for the period 2021/22 to 2025/26. Table 14 overleaf shows the specific sites that are included within the five-year housing land supply period and the justification for their inclusion.
Table 13: Five-Year Housing Land Supply Calculation for the period 2021/22-2025/26
A | Homes that should have been delivered prior to start of five-year housing land supply period (300 x 5) | 1,500 |
|---|---|---|
B | Actual completions in the five years prior to start of five-year housing land supply period | 1,705 |
C | Shortfall to date against the five-year housing delivery requirement to date | 0 |
D | Five-Year Housing Target 2021/22-2025/26 based on Stepped Housing Target set out in Policy STR5 of the Local Plan 2016-2036 Part 1 (5 years at 400 homes per annum) | 2,000 |
E | Five-Year Housing Target 2021/22-2025/26 | 2,000 |
F | Buffer applied | 5% |
G | Total Five-Year Housing Requirement 2021/22-2025/26 including 5% buffer (2,000 x 1.05) | 2,100 |
H | Identified Five-Year Housing Supply | 1,291 |
I | Years Housing Land Supply for the period 2021/22-2025/26 ((H/G)*5) | 3.07 |
Table 14: Five-Year Housing Land Supply Sites as of 1 April 2021 Explanatory Note
Large sites with detailed planning permission and small sites with planning permission meet the definition of 'deliverable' that is set out in the NPPF
Delivery from Strategic Site allocations that do not have planning permission has been included in the five-year housing land supply period where there is considered to be sufficient evidence that completions will occur on site within the next five years. All the sites included are sites where:
- There is a contracted housebuilder who will deliver the site and therefore has responsibility and control over its development timetable; and
- Clear progress is being made with bringing the site forward and overcoming any constraints (e.g., technical site-specific assessments and masterplanning have been undertaken or are in progress, a full planning application for the site has been submitted, the site is in pre-app in advance of a full planning application being submitted etc.); and
- There is evidence that the housebuilder intends to deliver dwellings on the site within five years
In order to inform the construction of realistic delivery trajectories for Strategic Site allocations the following assumptions on lead-in times and built-out rates have been applied. These assumptions are derived from research undertaken at a County level which provides evidence-based analysis on past trends for planning application determination timeframes, build-out rates and lead-in times for sites of 100 to 399 dwellings:
- 12 to 18 months from validation of planning application to granting of planning permission
- Around 18 months lead-in time from grant of Full/Reserved Matters planning permission to first completion
- A single outlet on a site will generally build around 50 dwellings per annum
| Site Name | Justification for inclusion of Site within Five-Year Housing Land Supply | Five year housing land supply period | Total 2021/26 | ||||||||||
| Housebuilder contracted to deliver site | Planning Stage | Stage reached - Comments | Date planning application validated | Realistic date for planning application to be submitted | Realistic date for outline planning consent to be achieved | Realistic date for implementable (Full/Reserved Matters) planning consent to be achieved | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | ||
SS.1 Land north of Totton - Land at Loperwood Lane | Yes - Aster Communities | Under construction | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. Reserved Matters planning permission for 80 dwellings was granted in October 2020 (19/10703). The site is now under construction. The site is therefore deliverable in accordance with the NPPF | June 2019 - Reserved Matters |
|
| Reserved Matters Permission granted October 2020 |
| 40 | 40 |
|
| 80 |
SS.1 Land north of Totton - Land north of Salisbury Road | Yes - Bloor Homes | Resolution to grant outline planning permission subject to signing of s.106 agreement | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. Resolution to grant outline planning permission subject to s.106 Agreement - 20/10997 (up to 280 dwellings) (Resolution to approve given by Planning Committee in July 2021). Bloor Homes has recently (in September 2021) confirmed their intentions to commence meaningful delivery on the site within five years and has also confirmed that there are no infrastructure demands that would delay the timely approval of detailed (reserved) matters or the delivery of housing within the next few years. Given this and taking account of the evidence- based assumptions on delivery timeframes set out in the explanatory note, it is considered there is sufficient justification to include delivery of 40 dwellings within the five-year housing land supply period | September 2020 - Outline |
| Spring 2022 - Outline | Spring 2024 - Reserved Matters |
|
|
|
| 40 | 40 |
SS.1 Land north of Totton - Land west of Hill Street | Yes - Bargate Homes | Pre- application | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. A screening opinion has been given which concluded that an EIA would not be required. Pre-application advice is advanced, and a full planning application is expected to be submitted in spring 2022. Bargate Homes' build-out intention is to deliver 10 dwellings in 2023/24 and 50 dwellings in 2024/25. Given the progress that has been made to date in bringing the site forward, the developer's intentions, and taking account of the evidence-based assumptions on planning application determination and average site delivery timeframes set out in the explanatory note, it is considered there is sufficient justification to include delivery of 50 dwellings within the five-year housing land supply period
|
| Spring 2022 - Full |
| Autumn 2023 - Full |
|
|
| 10 | 40 | 50 |
SS.4 The former Fawley Power Station | Yes - Fawley Waterside | Resolution to grant outline planning permission subject to signing of s.106 agreement | The allocation is owned by Fawley Waterside who will build-out and the deliver the site. Applications (19/10131 and 19/10138) for the demolition of the power station buildings and clearance and remediation of the site were approved in May 2019. The outline planning application (19/10581 - 1,380 dwellings and 95,300sqm of commercial, civic and employment floorspace) received resolution to grant planning permission in July 2020. Following resolution to grant planning permission, detailed discussions have been on- going regarding the s.106 Agreement. Once the permissions have been issued, Fawley Waterside will commence with the discharge of pre- development conditions and bring forward the first Reserved Matters application. Fawley Waterside's current programme envisages that the first Reserved Matters application for residential use will be brought forward in 2022. The scheme requires the implementation of various pieces of infrastructure including flood defences and road improvements. These are anticipated to commence in 2022. Fawley Waterside's delivery timetable anticipates the completion of 110 dwellings in 2024/25 and 110 dwellings in 2025/26. Based on progress made to bring the site forward to date, and the developer's intention regarding submission of the Reserved Matters application and overall delivery, there is evidence to show that the completion of 50 dwellings in 2025/26 is realistic and achievable | May 2019 - Outline |
| Summer 2022 - Outline | Summer 2024 - Reserved Matters for Phase 1 |
|
|
|
| 50 | 50 |
SS.5 Land at Milford Road, Lymington | Yes - Bargate Homes | Planning Application - Outline | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. An Outline planning application for up to 110 dwellings is currently being determined (20/11192). Bargate Homes set out their intentions (in July 2021) to submit the Reserved Matters application in 2022, subject to the positive determination and agreement of the s.106, and to deliver dwellings on the site within five years. Given the progress that has been made to date in bringing the site forward, the developer's intentions, and taking account of the evidence- based assumptions on average planning application determination and site delivery timeframes set out in the explanatory note, it is considered likely that there will be delivery of 20 dwellings in 2025/26, and that there is sufficient justification to include delivery of 20 dwellings within the five-year housing land supply period | October 2020 - Outline |
| Autumn 2022 - Outline | Autumn 2024 - Reserved Matters |
|
|
|
| 20 | 40 |
SS.8 Land at Hordle Lane, Hordle | Yes - Bargate Homes | None | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. Technical studies/site-specific assessments are progressing. A Screening Opinion Request has been submitted (21/11511, November 2021). Bargate Homes submitted their pre-application submission in November 2021. Bargate Homes is preparing a full planning application and has confirmed their intentions (in July 2021) to deliver dwellings on the site within five years. Bargate Homes' build-out intention is to deliver 50 dwellings in 2023/24, 50 dwellings in 2024/25 and 50 dwellings 2025/26. This timetable was based upon the pre-application being submitted in August 2021 and the full planning application being submitted at end of 2021. The pre-application request submission was made in November 2021 and consequently the timetable is effectively six months behind. However, given the progress that has been made to date in bringing the site forward, the developer's intentions, and taking account of the evidence-based assumptions on average planning application determination and site delivery timeframes set out in the explanatory note, it is considered likely that there will be delivery of 50 dwellings in 2025/26, and that there is sufficient justification to include delivery of 50 dwellings within the five-year housing land supply period |
| Summer 2022 - Full |
| Spring 2024 - Full |
|
|
|
| 50 | 50 |
SS.8 Land at Hordle Lane, Hordle | No - Amirez Ltd | Full planning permission | Full planning permission for 10 dwellings was granted in August 2020 (19/10007). The site is deliverable in accordance with the NPPF | January 2019 - Full |
|
| Full Permission granted August 2020 |
| 10 |
|
|
| 10 |
SS.9 Land east of Everton Road, Hordle | Yes - Bargate Homes | Planning Application - Full | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. Pre-application advice has concluded. A full planning application for 103 dwellings is currently being determined (21/11731). Bargate Homes has confirmed (in July 2021) their intentions to deliver dwellings on the site within five years. Bargate Homes' build-out intention is to deliver 25 dwellings in 2022/23, 50 dwellings in 2023/24 and 25 dwellings 2024/25. This timetable was based upon the planning application being submitted in late summer/autumn 2021. The planning application was submitted at the end of 2021 and consequently this trajectory provided by the housebuilder is considered to be over- optimistic. However, given the progress that has been made to date in bringing the site forward with the site now being at full planning application stage, the developer's intentions, and taking account of the evidence-based assumptions on average planning application determination and site delivery timeframes set out in the explanatory note, it is considered likely that there will be delivery of 25 dwellings in 2024/25 and 50 dwellings in 2025/26, and that there is sufficient justification to include delivery of 75 dwellings within the five-year housing land supply period was based upon the planning application being submitted in late summer/autumn 2021. The planning application was submitted at the end of 2021 and consequently this trajectory provided by the housebuilder is considered to be over- optimistic. However, given the progress that has been made to date in bringing the site forward with the site now being at full planning application stage, the developer's intentions, and taking account of the evidence-based assumptions on average planning application determination and site delivery timeframes set out in the explanatory note, it is considered likely that there will be delivery of 25 dwellings in 2024/25 and 50 dwellings in 2025/26, and that there is sufficient justification to include delivery of 75 dwellings within the five-year housing land supply period | January 2022 - Full |
|
| Summer 2023 - Full |
|
|
| 25 | 50 | 75 |
SS.10 Land at Brockhills Lane, New Milton | Yes - Pennyfarthing Homes | Planning Application - Full | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. A full planning application for 169 dwellings is currently being determined (21/11179). Given that the site is now at full planning application stage and taking account of the evidence-based assumptions on average planning application determination and site delivery timeframes set out in the explanatory note, it is considered likely that there will be delivery of 20 dwellings in 2024/25 and 40 dwellings in 2025/26, and that there is sufficient justification to include delivery of 80 dwellings within the five-year housing land supply period | August 2021 - Full |
|
| Spring 2023 - Full |
|
|
| 40 | 40 | 80 |
SS.12 Land south of Derritt Lane, Bransgore | Yes - Wyatt Homes | Planning Application - Full | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. A full planning application for 100 dwellings is currently being determined (21/11097). Wyatt Homes' current expectation is to commence construction in spring 2023 and deliver 20 dwellings in 2023/24, 40 dwellings and 2024/25 and 40 dwellings in 2025/26. Given the progress made on bringing the site forward to date and the estimated realistic date at which full planning permission can be obtained, these delivery intentions are realistic, achievable and consistent with past trends on build-out rates and lead-in times set out in the explanatory note to this table. It is considered therefore, that there is sufficient evidence to justify the inclusion of all 100 dwellings from this site in the five-year housing land supply period | July 2021 - Full |
|
| Summer 2022 - Full |
|
| 20 | 40 | 40 | 100 |
SS.17 Land at Whitsbury Road, Fordingbridge - Tinkers Cross Farm | Yes - Pennyfarthing Homes | Planning Application - Full | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. A full planning application for 64 dwellings is currently being determined (20/11469). A solution has been identified to deliver the measures required to deliver a suitable foul sewer connection to the Fordingbridge treatment works which will not delay delivery of the site. The Design and Access Statement submitted with the planning application makes clear Pennyfarthing Homes' intention to deliver the site within the five-year housing land supply period. Given that the site is now at full planning application stage and taking account of the evidence-based assumptions on average planning application determination and site delivery timeframes set out in the explanatory note, it is therefore considered there is sufficient justification to include delivery of all 64 dwellings from this site within the five-year housing land supply period | February 2021 - Full |
|
| Autumn 2022 - Full |
|
| 25 | 39 |
| 64 |
SS.18 Land at Burgate, Fordingbridge - Land at Burgate Acres | Yes - Metis Homes | Resolution to grant full planning permission subject to signing of s.106 agreement | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. The site has a resolution to grant full planning permission for 63 dwellings subject to the signing of a s.106 agreement (20/10228). A solution has been identified to deliver the measures required to deliver a suitable foul sewer connection to the Fordingbridge treatment works which will not delay delivery of the site. Metis Homes has previously stated that it intends to deliver this site as soon as possible. It is therefore considered there is sufficient justification to include delivery of all 63 dwellings from this site within the five-year housing land supply period | March 2020 - Full |
|
| Spring 2022 - Full |
|
| 25 | 38 |
| 63 |
SS.18 Land at Burgate, Fordingbridge - Land west of Burgate, west of Salisbury Road | Yes - Pennyfarthing Homes | Planning Application - Hybrid | The site is controlled by a housebuilder who will develop the site. A hybrid planning application for this site is currently being determined (21/11237 - Outline for around 405 dwellings with full details for the first phase of 111 dwellings). A solution has been identified to deliver the measures required to deliver a suitable foul sewer connection to the Fordingbridge treatment works which will not delay delivery of the site. Given that the first phase of the site has been submitted as a full application and taking account of the evidence-based assumptions on average planning application determination and site delivery timeframes set out in the explanatory note, it is considered likely that there will be delivery of 40 dwellings in 2025/26, and that there is sufficient justification to include delivery of 40 dwellings within the five-year housing land supply period | September 2021 Hybrid (Part Outline, Phase 1 Full) |
| Summer 2023 -Hybrid | Summer 2023 - Full (Phase 1 Only) |
|
|
|
| 40 | 40 |
NMT2 Land west of Moore Close, New Milton | Site owned by New Forest District Council | Resolution to grant full planning permission | The site is owned by New Forest District Council and the Council is actively bringing the site forward, with the site having a resolution to grant full planning permission (21/10932 - 16 dwellings) and the full planning permission is expected to be issued in February 2022. The Council intends to build out the site and commence construction in 2022. Given this, there is sufficient evidence that the scheme will realistically be built-out within five years | July 2021 - Full |
|
| February 2022 - Full |
|
| 15 |
|
| 15 |
Land at The Rise and three neighbouring properties, Stanford Hill, Lymington (Permissioned: 20/10481) | Yes - Lifestory Developments | Full planning permission | The site has full planning permission. The site is controlled by a developer, Lifestory Developments, who will deliver the site. The development is under construction |
| -4 | 44 |
|
| 40 | ||||
MoS1 Land north of School Lane, Milford on Sea (Permissioned: 17/10606) | Yes - Pennyfarthing Homes | Under construction | Remaining three units under construction and expected to be complete by March 2022 | 3 |
|
|
|
| 3 | ||||
Fernmount House and Centre, Forest Pines, New Milton (Permissioned: 19/11056) | Yes - Lovell Later Living | Full planning permission | The site has full planning permission granted in October 2020, is controlled by a developer (Lovell Later Living) who will deliver the site. Pre-commencement conditions are currently being discharged |
|
| 49 |
|
| 49 | ||||
FORD1 Land east of Whitsbury Road, Fordingbridge (Permissioned: 17/10150) | Yes - Pennyfarthing Homes | Under construction | Remaining 28 units under construction and expected to be complete by March 2022 | 28 |
|
|
|
| 28 | ||||
SAND1 Land west of Scout Centre, Station Road, Sandleheath (Permissioned: 19/11080, 19/11083) | Yes - Healthy Developments | Under construction | Development under construction. Expected to be complete by March 2022 | 14 |
|
|
|
| 14 | ||||
Contribution to housing supply from permissioned care homes sites (C2) | Both sites making up this element of the supply have full planning permission and so are deliverable in accordance with the NPPF. These two sites are: • 20/10656 - Barberry House, Wildground Lane, Hythe • 17/11358 - Land west of Crow Lane, Ringwood |
| 35 |
|
|
| 35 | ||||||
Permissioned Small Sites (1-9 Dwellings) | All have planning permission and so are deliverable in accordance with the NPPF. The permissioned small sites figure includes a 10% discount for non-implementation (this discount percentage was supported by Inspectors at the Local Plan examination) | 77 | 77 | 77 | 39 |
| 270 | ||||||
Windfalls (Small Sites 1-9 Dwellings) | Based on clear trend-based evidence demonstrating reliability of supply which was tested during the Local Plan examination and supported by the Inspectors who examined the Local Plan |
|
|
| 38 | 77 | 115 | ||||||
Total Projected Completions | 122 | 158 | 295 | 269 | 447 | 1,291 | |||||||
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